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CFL Week 14 Preview

By Mitchell Blair

Week 14 of the CFL season has hit. It is the perfect middle to the NFL season starting.  You get the first NFL game Thursday night followed by a Friday night CFL game and then a tripleheader of action on Saturday before you staple your butt to the couch and get comfy on Sunday watching the NFL.  You can use Saturday as a test-run for Sunday and with all the games on TSN, you won’t have to change the channel so you shouldn’t have to run out to Walmart Sunday morning getting batteries for the remote.  

That first game has BC in Montreal to play the Alouettes.  Many were hoping for this to be the Vernon Adams revenge game, but it appears as if the Lions are going to start Antonio Pipkin who did not look particularly good coming off the bench against Saskatchewan in their last game.

The Lions are favoured by anywhere from 2.5 to 5 points depending on what book or books you use.  BC has a better team than Montreal and they are coming off a bye. That wide point spread concerns me and I think that line is where it is because of the uncertainty at quarterback.  At the time of writing this, the line hasn’t moved but I can see it coming down a little more towards Montreal.

It's never easy for BC when they travel East and after putting in a less than stellar outing in Ottawa, you know the Alouettes want to come up with a much better performance. At the end of the day though, I can’t take an Eastern team to beat a Western team-----I don’t care if the Alouettes are at home. That point spread does scare me though so I am staying away from it and taking the Lions on the moneyline.  They should have enough both offensively and defensively to beat Montreal and keep the heat on Winnipeg.  

PICK: BC ML (-161) at Coolbet

Have the REDBLACKS turned the page? They have been big underdogs the past two weeks and they came out and beat both Edmonton and Montreal and beat them rather handily winning by seven in Edmonton and by 14 at home against the Alouettes. Ottawa started the year at 1-9, but they had a lot to go against them so the question has to be asked as to whether or not this is the Ottawa team we were expecting to see at the start of the season. They needed some time to regroup after the Jeremiah Masoli injury and they appear to have done that as Nick Arbuckle is now in charge.  I am guessing Arbuckle wants a shot at the Argos.  Ottawa is at home again and that gives them a little bit of an advantage.  The Argos are favored by one, but I am willing to give Ottawa a chance especially when it’s a basic pick-em.  If you can get a little more return on the investment I am all for that so let’s take the REDBLACKS to get a third straight W and tighten those Eastern Division standings just a little more. 

PICK: Ottawa ML (+110) at Bet365 

From there we go a pickin and a strummin to Winnipeg as another Banjo Bowl is upon us.  The Labour Day Classic was great in the first half as the Riders jumped out into a lead against the Bombers, but Winnipeg got back into it and won it in what was a snooze fest of a second half as the teams combined to score a whopping four points sending those who were confident of the over at the half into a grumpy mood at the end of the game.  

It just seems that no matter what Saskatchewan does, they can’t beat the Bombers.  Whether it be Cody Fajardo’s pass bouncing off the upright in the 2019 West Final to not being able to capitalize on all the turnovers they got in last year’s West Final to what happened last Sunday at Mosaic, Saskatchewan just can’t make the right play at the right time and Winnipeg does what it has to in order to get the victory.  The Bombers didn’t panic after getting down last week, they just methodically kept doing what they do and in the end they pulled out another close victory.   

The spread here varies from 7.5 to 9.5 points for Winnipeg.  That number has me looking at Saskatchewan.  Winnipeg has not blown a lot of teams out this year.  They have done what they have to do in order to get a victory, but those victories have come by being the team that makes the play in the fourth quarter.  That script shouldn’t change much this week.  Winnipeg to win is the safe bet here, but I am going to take Saskatchewan to cover what at the time I record this is a 9.5 point spread.   I don’t see Winnipeg recording a double-digit win unless they get a late touchdown to pad the score and turn a 4-point lead into an 11-point one.

I am going with the Riders to cover in a game that could be low scoring again.  The total line is between 44.5 and 45.5 points.  That is a very tempting number, but I think like last week, we could see the under come into play here but my money will be going on the green guys to cover. 

PICK: Saskatchewan +7.5 (-105) at Bet365 

That brings us to another battle of Alberta as Calgary goes into Edmonton.  Edmonton winning at home is something that hasn’t happened since the Eskimos turned into the Elks. It is amazing to think a team could go over 1000 days without walking off their home field as a winner.  Edmonton’s late touchdown last week gave them a cover.  I’m not sure how Calgary allowed Edmonton to keep it close.  You just can’t bet on Edmonton at home.  Some day they will win at home, but I just can’t take them to win until they actually do it.  

It wouldn’t surprise me to see Calgary lay a beatdown on their Alberta rivals despite the positives Edmonton had in the Labour Day loss. Edmonton simply can’t hang with Calgary.  They have some offensive talent, but they can’t match up with the Stampeders. I will take them at -8.5, but that number has gone up.  If it goes back to 6.5, hammer money down on Calgary, if it gets up to 10.5, it will make me plunk that wager down with a little uncertainty, but I will still do it.

PICK: Calgary -9 (-110) at Coolbet

Enjoy the games!  

One of betstamp’s largest brand values is transparency. Whether you are looking to tail or fade my picks, or potentially just like reading the breakdowns, you can find my full documented betting record here. Best of luck with your bets today.  

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