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Italian Grand Prix Qualifying and Race Preview: September 9, 2022

By Michael Spiegel

So much for the more balanced competition between cars in Formula 1. Last offseason, implementations were put in place to attempt to level the playing field between cars and F1 teams. Well, since then, we’ve had a total of four unique race winners from just two constructors. Not to say that this F1 season has been boring, but in comparison to the marvellous season we had last year, this year hasn’t been nearly as exciting.

Max Verstappen is currently running away with the driver’s championship, and it would take an epic collapse for him to lose it at this point. Having won 10 of the 15 races this season, including the most recent four in a row, Verstappen has over a 100-point gap between him and second place. He could decide to skip out on the next four races and still lead the constructor’s title. While that battle for first place isn’t overly exciting, the battle for second is much different. Excluding Verstappen, the other drivers in the top 5 of the driver’s standings are separated by just 26 points, which could technically be made up in just one race. It’s clear how dominant Verstappen and his Red Bull have been this year, and it would be no surprise whatsoever to see him win again this weekend given the long straights presented at Monza and the phenomenal top speed that the RB18 has shown it is capable of this year.

It’s all but guaranteed for George Russell to finish in the top 5, just like he’s done at every other race where he has classified this year, however, the value on that bet is abysmal given how much of a lock it is. Russell is only offered pay-to-play bets on a podium finish this weekend, which is the first time I’ve seen that for him this year. With a P2 finish last weekend, sportsbooks aren’t going to give you great odds on him. I’m looking more at Ferrari this weekend. A home race for them with two drivers eager to impress their loyal fans. I’m expecting big things from them.

My Picks: 

Max Verstappen – Fastest Qualifier, Fastest Lap, and Win Race +200 (bet365): I went with this bet last weekend and Verstappen answered the call. Given the way he has driven this season, it’s hard to not take a bet like this on Verstappen.

Both Cars Podium Finish – Ferrari +400 (bet365): It’s the home race for Ferrari and at some point, the bad luck has to end. At +400, and with two extremely talented drivers in a very good car, I think both Leclerc and Sainz can finish on the podium on Sunday.

Carlos Sainz – Race Winner +2500 (bet365): I like taking a backup driver in case something goes wrong with Verstappen’s race. Sainz is one of four drivers who have a race win this year and at +2500 that’s pretty remarkable odds for a driver who has consistently proven himself this year. In a Ferrari at Monza, how can you not bet on a Ferrari to win it all?

One of betstamp’s largest brand values is transparency. Whether you are looking to tail or fade my picks, or potentially just like reading the breakdowns, you can find my full documented betting record here. Best of luck with your bets today.

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