GOLF FREE PICKS

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Golf Picks: June 14 - The US Open 

The Country Club, Brookline, Mass., June 16-19, 2022

By Marc Tersigni

I believe we may have just witnessed the best Canadian Open in recent memory. Did you see those galleries? Watching the final group putt with all the patrons surrounding the green was phenomenal. Last week the golf world was also engulfed with all the LIV talk, and I don't see that changing this week. The players that were suspended by the PGA Tour will still be able to participate this week in the US Open (assuming they qualified).

Phil Mickelson's presser was tough to watch. After a shocking win at last year’s PGA Championship, Phil became the oldest major winner of all time. Instead of being able to celebrate that accomplishment, he has been surrounded by controversy. He missed both majors this year, but he will play this week as he continues to chase a prestigious US Open victory, something that has eluded him throughout his career. The entire golf world tuned in to hear what he had to say in his first public interview since the controversy. He acknowledged that he signed with the LIV Tour for the money, and the opportunity to grow the game. I am not really buying the latter. He also stated that he believes he should have the option to play both tours, after what he called 30 years of contributing to the PGA Tour. Mickelson notes that he has been focusing on self-improvement, with multiple mentions of therapy. You can view his interview in its entirety below (courtesy of the Golf Channel).

Sadly, Tiger recently announced that his current health will hold him out of the US Open. He does however plan to play in the Open (British) later this year.

Rory has to be considered the odds on favourite this week. He is coming off his first victory of the season, and he looks to be in great form. We all know how tough the US Open plays; so Rory will not be able to miss the short putts that he did last week. If he can clean that up, he will definitely be in contention on Sunday afternoon.

For nearly three months Scottie Scheffler has been the betting favourite to win every tournament he has entered. This is not the case this week as both Rory and JT are listed at number one and two (according to bet365). I am curious to see if Scottie can rebound from his current “slump” to regain his Masters form.

The Course

What is the US Open known for? Long rough and quick greens. If you want to win this tournament you must keep the ball on the fairway and avoid those dreaded 3-putts. Most errant tee shots will lead to nothing more than a punch-out, surely costing the players a stroke. I love watching the world’s best struggle. There is something very satisfying and entertaining watching professionals lose their cool, something we can all relate to.

Let’s talk about the course. Located just outside of Boston, The Country Club at Brookline is a par-70 featuring 7264 yards of breathtaking views, pristine greens and penalizing rough. The last time this course held the US Open was in 1988. It featured a playoff win for Curtis Strange over Nick Faldo. More recently, The Country Club hosted the memorable 1999 Ryder Cup which saw the Americans beat Team Europe by 1 point to secure the victory.

At 7264 yards, the course isn’t amongst the longest. But it is sure to play amongst the toughest. For a breathtaking overview of this historic course, I would highly recommend this Golf Digest video review.

The Favourites

The top 3 favourites this week include:

  1. Rory Mcilroy - Best price: +1200 at PointsBet 
  2. Justin Thomas - Best price: +1400 at PointsBet 
  3. Scottie Scheffler - Best price: +1400 at BetRivers

If you love to bet tournament winners like I do, I highly suggest price shopping these lines. We see a great variation from sportsbook to sportsbook. For a complete list of the best prices available checkout our betstamp futures comparison chart here. You do not want to be leaving any money on the table. If your guy hits, make sure you get top dollar for it.

Longshots at Great Value

Corey Conners +6600 at BetMGM - He was my pick to win the Canadian Open. He fared pretty well with a 6th place finish. Corey is stellar off the tee, and he will need to be this week. You can bet Conners at 66-1 on BetMGM

Keegan Bradley +10000 at BetMGM -  Keegan hasn't won this year, but he has played some great golf. He hasn’t done much since winning at his first ever major appearance. At 100-1 (on BetMGM) I don’t mind throwing a few dollars his way. Keegan has made the cut in 6 of his last 7 starts including three top-10s. 

My Outright Winner:

Matthew Fitzpatrick is a legitimate talent on the PGA Tour, he has 7 international wins, but he is still looking to break through with his first professional victory on American soil. Why hasn't he been more successful? Okay, he is only 27 years of age. I truly believe it's only a matter of time before he bursts through with multiple victories. I am thinking this may be the week.

Here are some of Fitzpatrick's Strokes Gained stats for the season (courtesy of pgaTour.com):

Fitzpatrick isn’t the longest hitter, but he hits it far enough. If he can continue to register his tee-to-green numbers, I like his chances. Oh I almost forgot. Fitzpatrick won the US Amateur on this very course in 2013. I think maybe it comes full circle this week, and he can register his first major victory.

My pick: Matthew Fitzpatrick to win the US Open +2800 at betMGM

Tournament Match-ups

Burns over Zalatoris -110 (tie loses) at bet365 - Sam Burns has had a spectacular season, and he still doesn't get the love he deserves. I will take him this week over Will Zalatoris. Zalatoris is a streaky golfer, and often contends at the Majors. But this week, I am going with the more reliable golfer. Give me Burns.

Schauffele over Cam Smith -110 (tie loses) at bet365- Cam Smith hasn't been the same golfer over the last month or so. Xander on the other hand continues to improve the state of his game. Schauffele is going to get a win sooner or later, and I almost took him this week as my outright pick. So I will take him on the 72 hole matchup over Smith.

One of betstamp’s largest brand values is transparency. Whether you are looking to tail or fade my picks, or potentially just like reading the breakdowns, you can find my full documented betting record here. Best of luck with your bets today.

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