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MLB Picks: August 08

By Michael Spiegel

Only seven games on the schedule for tonight, but some exciting matchups to look forward to. The Yankees are in Seattle tonight to kick off a series with the Mariners. The Mariners just won a series against the Yankees in New York last week and will be looking to replicate that here over the next few days. Since that series loss to the Mariners, the Yankees have been struggling, having lost five in a row including getting swept over the weekend by the Cardinals.

With game 1 of this series getting underway tonight, let’s have a look at the starting pitchers. On the mound for the Yankees is Jameson Taillon, and the Mariners will turn to Logan Gilbert to get this series underway. This exact pitching matchup took place less than a week ago, where the Mariners would go on to beat the Yankees 8-6. Both pitchers struggled mightily in that matchup. Taillon pitched just 4 and 2/3 innings, giving up 5 earned runs and walking 4 batters in the process. While he has an ERA under 4 on the season, in July his ERA was over 5 as he looks to have trended downwards from his early season success.

As for Gilbert, he went 5 and 1/3 innings against the Yankees, giving up 7 hits, walking 4 batters, and giving up 6 earned runs. Both pitchers struggled quite a bit in the matchup last week, and while Gilbert might have a better performance, Taillon’s track record over the past few months gives me no confidence in assuming that tonight will be that bounce-back effort that he’s been searching for.

Both pitchers have been struggling over their last 7 starts. Gilbert has an ERA of 4.54 over that stretch, compared to his season ERA of 3.09. Taillon has an ERA of 5.71 over those 7 games, compared to his season ERA of 3.96. Gilbert and Taillon have both been giving up many more runs recently in comparison to their early-season success against hitters.

I feel like 7.5 is a pretty low total considering the outcome of last week's matchup between these two pitchers. With the combination of Taillon’s struggles over the past few months and one of the best teams in baseball attempting to snap a five-game skid, I think the over will hit tonight. The first 5 innings over is set at 4.5 which could be a good bet if these two pitchers get hit around early on.

Pick: Yankees @ Mariners: Over 7.5 (-112) at BetRivers

Alternate Pick: Yankees @ Mariners: Over 4.5 (F5) +124 at FanDuel

Other notable bets:

Blue Jays @ Orioles: Blue Jays (-145) at DraftKings: Yusei Kikuchi has faced his fair share of criticism this season. Things have looked promising since he returned to the Blue Jays after his stint with AAA Buffalo. Kikuchi pitched against the Orioles earlier this season, going 6 strong innings, striking out 6 and walking 3 batters while giving up no runs. The Jays will look to continue upon their recent success as they face a lower calibre team in the Orioles.

Giants @ Padres: Under 8 (-110) at FanDuel: It will be Alex Wood vs Blake Snell tonight, two pitchers who had fantastic months of July. Wood had an ERA of 1.65 through July and Snell had an ERA of 2.81. It looks like both pitchers found their groove throughout July and will be looking to continue that success tonight.

Angels @ Athletics: Under 7 (+105) bet365: While José Suarez has struggled this season, the Athletics bats have been some of the coldest in all of baseball. Pitching for the A’s is Cole Irvin who posted an ERA under 2 throughout July. Given the Athletics' inability to produce runs and Irvin’s ability to prevent runs, I think the under will hit in this one.

One of betstamp’s largest brand values is transparency. Whether you are looking to tail or fade my picks, or potentially just like reading the breakdowns, you can find my full documented betting record here. Best of luck with your bets today.

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