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MLB Free Pick: July 08

By Eric Pauly

On Friday night, the Blue Jays and the Mariners face off for the second game of a three-game series. The Mariners took game one last night 8-3 behind an impressive pitching performance by Marco Gonzales and a strong early offensive output. The season series between these two teams are knotted up at two games a piece. 

Ross Stripling will make the start for the Blue Jays on the road tonight. Stripling is 4-3 on the season in 11 starts with a 3.32 ERA, a 3.20 FIP, and a 1.12 WHIP. Stripling has thrown 2.1 relief innings in two separate games against Seattle this season and he allowed two runs on three hits with three strikeouts. In 29 innings on the road this season, Stripling has a 3.10 ERA on the, a .200 batting average against, a .86 WHIP, and a 2.45 FIP. 

The Blue Jays, as a team, have a .717 OPS on the road, a .757 OPS against righties, and a 112 wRC+ on the season. 

George Kirby will make the start for Seattle at home. Kirby, the Mariners' No. 2 prospect, is 2-3 in 11 starts this season with a 3.75 ERA, a 4.27 FIP, and a 1.15 WHIP. In his last three home starts, Kirby has allowed nine runs on 17 hits over 17 innings of work. In fact, Kirby has been worse at home this season, pitching to the tune of a 4.64 ERA, an opposing .485 slugging percentage, a 4.47 FIP, and a 1.21 WHIP in 33 innings at home. 

The Mariners, as a team, have a .705 OPS at home, a .700 OPS against righties, and a 108 WRC+ this season. 

After posting just three runs against a lefty pitcher last night, this is a great bounceback spot for Toronto. The Mariners are 8-2 in their last 10 and the Blue Jays are 3-7, but the Blue Jays have the advantage against a young pitcher who is worse at home this year. Stripling has been solid for Toronto, and though they are free-falling, I think they pick themselves back up tonight. 

Pick: TOR ML -115 (DK Sportsbook)

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