MLB FREE PICKS

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MLB Picks: June 4

By Michael Spiegel

The Padres visit the Brewers this afternoon after a commanding 7-0 win last night to even up this 4-game set at two games a piece. Today, Mackenzie Gore starts for the Padres and Aaron Ashby will take the mound for the Brewers.

Both lefties have very respectable numbers this season. Gore is showing why he was a 3rd overall pick in the 2017 draft, currently amounting a sub 2 ERA and a WHIP just over 1 through 8 appearances this season. Ashby also has fairly respectable numbers, with an ERA under 3 and a WHIP of 1.33 in 11 appearances. While Gore has the better numbers, Ashby has shown to be a formidable force on the mound this year.

The real deal breaker between these two teams is the bats. Overall, the Brewers have better offensive numbers than the Padres, however the numbers differ when facing left-handed pitching, like they will today. The Brewers have a .712 OPS this season, however that number significantly drops off to a .656 when facing lefties. On the other hand, the Padres are a completely different story, who have a .741 OPS against lefties, while they have a .672 when righties are factored in. As the numbers dictate, it appears that the Padres have much more success when facing lefties, whereas the Brewers seem to struggle. This should give them a significant advantage in today’s matchup.

Ashby faced the Padres a few weeks ago, going 5 and two-thirds, giving up four hits and walking three batters in the process. He would go on to get a no decision in that contest. While Gore hasn’t faced the Brewers yet, his last start shows that he is continuing to role this season, going 7 innings, and only giving up two hits. Gore is carrying a 3-1 record this season in 7 starts, whereas Ashby has a 1-3 record in 5 starts. Both teams share an identical 3.41 ERA from pitching so far this season. This should be a fairly even contest, however I’m giving the edge to the Padres, despite the oddsmakers doing the opposite.

I’m a little bit surprised to see the Padres as the underdogs in today’s matchup, and I still would have picked them even if they were the favourites, because I think they should be. This pick has the potential to be one of the best on the day.

Pick: Padres ML +110 (PowerPlay)

Other notable bets:

Red Sox/Athletics under 7.5 -115 (Betway): The A’s have Paul Blackburn on the mound for them today and he’s been an absolute stud for them so far this year. With his limited earned runs and the A’s inability to produce runs, this should be a low scoring contest.

Twins @ Blue Jays: Blue Jays -1.5 +123 (LeoVegas): Jose Berrios goes up against his former club today and he will do his best to make them regret trading him. The Blue Jays were defeated last night by these Twins, snapping their 8-game winning streak, and they’ll be looking for revenge.

One of betstamp’s largest brand values is transparency. Whether you are looking to tail or fade my picks, or potentially just like reading the breakdowns, you can find my full documented betting record here. Best of luck with your bets today.

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