MLB FREE PICKS
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MLB Picks: June 16
The Orioles are in Toronto this afternoon to finish up a four-game set with the Blue Jays. The Jays have won 2 of 3 so far and are looking to secure 3 of 4 in today’s matchup. On the mound today we have Tyler Wells for the O’s and Kevin Gausman for the Jays.
Wells has been solid for the struggling Orioles this year, currently posting a sub-4 ERA and a WHIP just above 1. Despite his 3-4 record this season, he has managed to keep his earned runs and hits to a minimum. He won 2 of his last 3 starts, albeit against teams not as talented as the Jays, and went 6 strong innings against the Red Sox a few weeks ago, giving up 2 hits in the process. The tall throwing right-hander has been tough on opposing hitters and will have his work cut out for him today as he faces a hot Jays lineup.
Kevin Gausman has been struggling as of late. A potential Cy Young candidate earlier this year has lost 4 of his last 6 starts. Gausman was hit around quite a bit 2 starts ago as he gave up 9 hits in just 3.2 innings before getting pulled from the game. Despite this, Gausman is still posting a sub-3 ERA and a WHIP just under 1.20. Today he’ll take the mound against the team that drafted him fourth overall a decade ago.
The Blue Jays' bats have been heating up after a cold start to the season. They currently lead all of baseball in OPS when playing at home, and are third overall when away games are factored in. They do slide a little bit further down when facing right-handed pitching, however, as they seem to fare better as a team against lefties. With a hard-throwing right-hander on the hill today for the O’s, we might see a little bit less success at the plate.
With the limited runs that both pitchers give up, and perhaps a little bit of extra motivation for Gausman facing his former team, I see the under-hitting in this one. Even with how the Blue Jays have been hitting over recent weeks, 8.5 runs being the over/under is a bit high. While I do think the Jays will score a fair share of runs today, I don’t see these two teams combining for nine.
Pick: Orioles/Blue Jays Under 8.5 -110 (Proline+)
Other notable bets:
Padres @ Cubs: Padres ML -155 (theScore Bet) Coming off of a 19-5 win last night and with Joe Musgrove on the mound for the Padres, they should be over -200 favourites in this one. Incredible value.
Guardians @ Rockies: Rockies ML +115 (Bet99): The Rockies have been amazing at home this season, with the second-best home OPS in the National League. Rockies should probably be favoured in this one.
Rangers @ Tigers: Rangers ML -120 (Bet99): The Tigers have been one of the worst hitting teams at home this year; and with Martín Pérez on the mound for the Rangers they should be heavier than -120 favourites.
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