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MLB Picks: June 16

By Michael Spiegel

The Orioles are in Toronto this afternoon to finish up a four-game set with the Blue Jays. The Jays have won 2 of 3 so far and are looking to secure 3 of 4 in today’s matchup. On the mound today we have Tyler Wells for the O’s and Kevin Gausman for the Jays.

Wells has been solid for the struggling Orioles this year, currently posting a sub-4 ERA and a WHIP just above 1. Despite his 3-4 record this season, he has managed to keep his earned runs and hits to a minimum. He won 2 of his last 3 starts, albeit against teams not as talented as the Jays, and went 6 strong innings against the Red Sox a few weeks ago, giving up 2 hits in the process. The tall throwing right-hander has been tough on opposing hitters and will have his work cut out for him today as he faces a hot Jays lineup.

Kevin Gausman has been struggling as of late. A potential Cy Young candidate earlier this year has lost 4 of his last 6 starts. Gausman was hit around quite a bit 2 starts ago as he gave up 9 hits in just 3.2 innings before getting pulled from the game. Despite this, Gausman is still posting a sub-3 ERA and a WHIP just under 1.20. Today he’ll take the mound against the team that drafted him fourth overall a decade ago.

The Blue Jays' bats have been heating up after a cold start to the season. They currently lead all of baseball in OPS when playing at home, and are third overall when away games are factored in. They do slide a little bit further down when facing right-handed pitching, however, as they seem to fare better as a team against lefties. With a hard-throwing right-hander on the hill today for the O’s, we might see a little bit less success at the plate.

With the limited runs that both pitchers give up, and perhaps a little bit of extra motivation for Gausman facing his former team, I see the under-hitting in this one. Even with how the Blue Jays have been hitting over recent weeks, 8.5 runs being the over/under is a bit high. While I do think the Jays will score a fair share of runs today, I don’t see these two teams combining for nine.

Pick: Orioles/Blue Jays Under 8.5 -110 (Proline+)

Other notable bets:

Padres @ Cubs: Padres ML -155 (theScore Bet) Coming off of a 19-5 win last night and with Joe Musgrove on the mound for the Padres, they should be over -200 favourites in this one. Incredible value.

Guardians @ Rockies: Rockies ML +115 (Bet99): The Rockies have been amazing at home this season, with the second-best home OPS in the National League. Rockies should probably be favoured in this one.

Rangers @ Tigers: Rangers ML -120 (Bet99): The Tigers have been one of the worst hitting teams at home this year; and with Martín Pérez on the mound for the Rangers they should be heavier than -120 favourites.

One of betstamp’s largest brand values is transparency. Whether you are looking to tail or fade my picks, or potentially just like reading the breakdowns, you can find my full documented betting record here. Best of luck with your bets today.

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