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MLB Picks: June 25

By Michael Spiegel

With a ton of exciting matchups today in the baseball world, one sticks out to me in particular. After the Blue Jays dominated the Brewers last night, they are now the underdogs for the second game of the series. It’s fairly obvious why that would be the case; Yusei Kikuchi versus Corbin Burnes. Arguably the Blue Jays’ worst starting pitcher going up against the Brewers’ ace is probably the largest driving force for the Brewers being favourited in this one. Despite this pitching matchup, I think the Blue Jays will win.

During Kikuchi’s last three starts, he has failed to go more than 4 innings. While that isn’t the most encouraging stat, the Brewers' inability to hit against lefties is quite interesting. Despite being tied for first place in the NL Central, the Brewers are one of the worst hitting teams in baseball when facing left-handed pitching. While they have a respectable .730 OPS when facing righties, that number slips to .663 when batting against lefties. This could be a fantastic opportunity for Kikuchi to regain his confidence and have a tremendous outing against the struggling Brewers bats.

Corbin Burnes is undoubtedly the Brewers ace this year and potentially a Cy Young nominee for this year. Carrying a sub-1 WHIP and an ERA of 2.31 through 14 starts, he has been fantastic for the Brewers. Coming off one of his best starts of the season, he will have to deal with the Blue Jays who put up 9 runs against his squad last night, and who are one of the best hitting teams in baseball. Another tough test for Burnes will be the Blue Jays' hottest hitter, Alejandro Kirk. Kirk has home runs in 3 straight and has a .931 OPS against right-handed pitching. Kirk has also been unstoppable in the month of May, posting an astonishing 1.112 OPS this month, which could propel him to his first All-Star game. Nevertheless, Burnes will have his work cut out for him this afternoon.

I can understand why the Brewers are the favourites to win today, but if Kikuchi can produce a solid 5 innings for the Jays, and the bats continue to punish opposing pitching, there is some good money to be made by siding on Toronto today.

Pick: Blue Jays @ Brewers: Blue Jays ML +140 (Caesars)

Other notable bets:

Red Sox @ Guardians: Red Sox ML +145 (theScore Bet): The Red Sox are one of the hottest teams in baseball and getting them as underdogs is a treat. Having won 5 straight, I think they go for 6 today.

Phillies @ Padres: Over 7.5 -110 (bet365): Two pitchers who have not been throwing well this year are starting in this one. Blake Snell has an ERA of over 5, and Zach Eflin posts an ERA of almost 4.50. The over should easily hit in this one, and I’m surprised to see it this low.

One of betstamp’s largest brand values is transparency. Whether you are looking to tail or fade my picks, or potentially just like reading the breakdowns, you can find my full documented betting record here. Best of luck with your bets today.

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