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MLB Picks: May 20

by Eric Cerenzia

Another 1-1 day. Another day of CLV in the green. We got -216 on TB generating over 6% of CLV, and 5.4% CLV on the Cardinals at +115. If we keep beating the market like that, it won’t be long until we start turning a profit on baseball. Let’s go 2-0 today and start getting into the GREEN for the MLB season. Unfortunately, the Jays offense has been sputtering lately – not much excitement being generated from my favourite team.

Let’s roll onto the Friday slate. First play today is going to be Rays ML on the road against the lowly O’s. This is a combination of a market play and backing a team I think is simply underrated in market right now. Proline+ is hanging -132 on the Rays while other regulated sites are in the range of -150. The Rays are throwing out youngster Jalen Beeks – it’ll be a bullpen game for them, but this does not scare me, as O’s pitcher Tyler Wells only has 19 ks over 28 innings and is coming off of a start against Detroit where he should’ve been hit up even more than the 3 ER he gave up over 4 innings. I think the Rays are being undervalued due to a bullpen game – but are the O’s better off with Tyler Wells? Really? I don’t think so. Let’s back the better team at a good market price on the road and hope we strike green. 

PICK: Tampa Bay Rays ML -132 at Proline+.

Second of today’s plays is going to be the Nats on the road against the Brewers. Both of these teams aren’t playing their best ball as of late – neither are above .500 in their last 10. I like Lauer to hit some regression eventually, as he’s only given up 8 walks on the season but has given up 5 home runs in his last 18 innings pitched. Obviously, his K rate is up, but if he keeps giving up the long-ball like this, his ERA is going to skyrocket. Let’s hope the Nats keep this one close at a good market price. We’re getting -25 on the runline, while the market is painted -35. I’ll take the 10 cents of value and hope the Nats hit up Lauer for a couple bombs. Go Nats Go. 

PICK: Washington Nationals +1.5 -125 at Bet99.

One of betstamp’s largest brand values is transparency. Whether you are looking to tail or fade my picks, or potentially just like reading the breakdowns, you can find my full documented betting record here. Best of luck with your bets today!

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