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UFC Vegas 57: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot
This Saturday the UFC looks to wrap up its second quarter with UFC Vegas 57: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot, before next weekend’ massive UFC 276 PPV. The card is geared to be another action-packed Fight Night with many quality matchups and talents looking to climb closer to contention.
One of the company’s top bantamweight prospects Umar Nurmagomedov (14-0) is poised to defend his undefeated record against Nate Maness (14-1), set to take place as the second bout on the main card. Nurmagomedov is yet to see the judges’ scorecards in his UFC tenure, having finished both of his opponents via rear-naked choke. With wins over Sergey Morozov and Brian Kelleher, he sees a slight step up in competition with Nate Maness.
Coming off a TKO win over Tony Gravely in September of 2021, Nate Maness looks to make it 4-0 in the UFC with a win against Nurmagomedov. He will carry a 2” height advantage and 3’” reach advantage over the Dagestani. He has managed to put together a respectable 86% takedown defense and is averaging 1.52 takedown attempts per fight. These numbers may seem great pre-fight but they won’t mean anything against someone like Nurmagomedov.
There is one thing the Nurmagomedov’s are notorious for and that is no matter how many times they are unsuccessful to bring the fight to the mat, they will keep trying relentlessly until it happens. Umar Nurmagomedov is averaging 7.56 takedowns per fight with a 37% conversion rate. Once his opponents are under duress, they usually give up their back signaling for the finish. Even if this fight does somehow shockingly play out on the feet, Nurmagomedov still has the edge in striking because of his sound defense and he doesn’t absorb the number of strikes per minute (0.67) compared to Maness (4.72).
I do believe Nurmagomedov should be the heavy favorite here but seeing him at -909 was very surprising. It may not happen as quickly as his other wins in the UFC, but once he drags Maness into deep waters, I believe he can get the finish.
Other bets to consider:
Tsarukyan/Rakhmonov Parlay -140 (Coolbet) - The main and co-main feature the top dark horses in their respective divisions. I expect both men to make the most of their opportunity whilst being in the spotlight of the card this weekend.
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