MMA FREE PICKS
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UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs Rakic Best Bet
Following last week’s emotional UFC 274, we now move onto UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic. This card is filled with competitive matchups from top to bottom. With a good mix of prospects, and some veterans, this week’s card is probably more suited for hardcore UFC fans and bettors.
For my pick here, I’m going to go with Davey Grant -300. It is a steep price but you might just have to bite the bullet on this one or make it a nice leg to a parlay, whatever you prefer to do.
First off let’s talk about his opponent Louis Smolka. He’s always been primarily focused on his grappling, with a scramble-heavy style and an affinity for creating space in transitions and snatching submissions when his opponent makes a mistake. His striking has always been a little rudimentary with some clear defensive holes. Smolka would try to use aggression and a willingness to engage when striking in order to stay competitive with faster, more technical opponents.
That all unraveled beginning with former champion Brandon Moreno finishing Smolka in 2016. He would drop his next 3 fights by decision before being cut by the UFC. Smolka would then put together a couple wins not in the UFC, beating some fighters who don’t even have a Wikipedia page before being getting put back onto the UFC roster.
In Smolka’s return to the UFC, he has been submitted twice and KO’d once, while picking up a submission and two TKOs of his own. Smolka has pretty much been fighting to kill or be killed.
According to Tapology.com, this is a graph of Louis Smolka and where he ranks among the best MMA Bantamweights, as you can see since April of 2021, he has been on a downwards trend and that is just not a good sign.
Moving on to the Brit, Davey Grant yes, he is a bit old at Bantamweight (36 years old), and is coming off of two decision losses. So why is he a -300 favorite?
Those 2 losses Grants have had are way more impressive than Smolka’s wins. Grant lasted 3 rounds with Chito Vera (who just beat Rob Font via UD 48-47, 49-46 x2) and had a very competitive fight with Adrian Yanez who is on the upcoming in the Bantamweight division.
Before that, Grant had two KOs with almost exactly the same combination while facing Martin Day and Jonathan Martinez. Grant has appeared to have put the pieces together late in his career and is looking sharper than ever on the feet.
So, I’m going to swallow the big favorite and back Davey Grant and that left hand at -300 on Bet99.
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