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NBA Picks: May 11

By Michael Harty

The Boston Celtics return home after an emphatic fourth-quarter comeback to win Game 4 116-108 on Monday night. Meanwhile, out West, The Golden State Warriors will look to end Memphis’ championship hopes.

Celtics Head Coach Ime Udoka seemed to find something late during that fourth-quarter barrage. Grant Williams, who Udoka has used primarily to defend Giannis Antetokounmpo was in foul trouble and fellow big man Robert Willaims was deemed unavailable shortly before tip-off with knee soreness in his surgically repaired knee. With few options at his disposal, Udoka went to a small-ball lineup that paid immediate dividends. If Robert Willaims is unavailable again, it will be interesting to see whether Udoka continues with this lineup combination.

One of the main benefactors of this new lineup was Derrick White, who saw a bump in usage in minutes. He was used primarily as a defender against Bucks point-guard Jrue Holiday. Holiday, who has taken on a massive load since the Khris Middleton injury had what we can call a rough day at the office, shooting 5/22 from the field and 1 of 6 from deep. Despite the rough shooting night, Coach Bud deployed his number 2 options for 40 minutes. With a usage rate of 26.8% and averaging 21.2 shot attempts over his past 5 games, I do believe Holiday will revert to his usual self in game 5. Udoka could deploy White on Holiday again thinking the small sample size and off-shooting night by Holiday will repeat itself, but Jrue is too talented of a player and will get ample opportunity as the Celtics look to eliminate Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak had a usage rate of 40% while playing 40 plus minutes. That kind of workload is a lot for one player to take on, even one as great as Giannis. The Bucks will need Holiday’s secondary scoring to have a chance in this game, as the Celtics will again prioritize shutting down the two-time MVP.

RECOMMENDED WAGER: Jrue Holiday (Bucks) OVER 20.5 Points (-111) at bet365

 

OTHER GAMES WORTH BETTING

  • Golden State Warriors -4 (-110 ) at bet365

Grizzlies Star Ja Morant announced doubtful for Game 5, Warriors should overcome some shooting woes and finish this series off in Memphis. Based on Shot Quality data, Warriors' game 4 was closer than it appeared to be.

One of betstamp’s largest brand values is transparency. Whether you are looking to tail or fade my picks, or potentially just like reading the breakdowns, you can find my full documented betting record here. Best of luck with your bets today.

 

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