NBA FREE PICKS

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NBA Picks: May 12, 2022

By Jacob Gramegna

Two big Game 6’s on the slate tonight in the NBA and there’s plenty of opportunities to find a good market but I have zeroed in on the Miami Heat’s matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers. The Heat have been given positive odds on the moneyline largely due to the fact that the 76ers are hosting, but I feel like there are three aspects of this matchup that are not reflected in those lines. 

Miami completely dismantled the 76ers in game 5, I’m not necessarily surprised the  Heat won comfortably but certainly nobody saw them winning by such a sum. Regardless, game 5 was a better representation of this Miami Heat team who lost games 3 and 4. Game 4 in particular is where I noticed many variances that I don’t expect to continue for the Heat. 

The first aspect I want to discuss is Miami’s three-point shooting which was the best in the NBA during the regular season. In games 3 and 4 they really struggled shooting from deep and actually only shot 20% from three in game 4. Despite this awful stat, Miami was in this game until the end and easily could have turned it into a win with one or two more made shots. Though role players have a tendency to play worse in away games I  expect Miami to deliver an above-average three-point percentage to help surge them onwards. 

The second aspect which I do not see reflected in the odds is how the 76ers continued to hit big shots at an extremely high rate in game 4. Miami got the 76ers offence to continually take shots late in the shot clock which typically leads to more missed shots but the 76ers shot 16-23 with 7 seconds or less on the shot clock and 8-12 with 4 seconds or less which is astronomically higher than the NBA average. As this stat regressed towards the mean in game 5, the 76ers got exposed. The Heat have showcased their ability to make it extremely difficult for the 76ers to play the game they want to play and if they continue to play in the same manner they will start to see more reward for their effort. 

The third and final aspect is more of a personal thought than a statistically driven analysis.  My belief is that this 76ers team is weak-minded. James Harden historically struggles In games 6 and 7 of a playoff series and over the years the 76ers franchise has had a  tendency to self-destruct. As much as there is talent on the 76ers, the Heat have a much better unit of players and a much better coach. If they play their game the way they have done for most of this series they will win this game.

The play tonight is: Miami  Heat ML +120 at Pointsbet

Other bets to look at 

The Phoenix Suns are the best team in the West and they have control of their series with the Dallas Mavericks. The depth of the Suns roster will overpower Dallas’  supporting cast and even if Luka Doncic has another monster night I still think the Suns win. Suns ML -125 at Bet99

One of betstamp’s largest brand values is transparency. Whether you are looking to tail or fade my picks, or potentially just like reading the breakdowns, you can find my full documented betting record here. Best of luck with your bets today.

 

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