NBA FREE PICKS

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NBA Picks: May 18

By Josh Goodwin

My Pick: Dallas Mavericks Money Line (+185) @ Caesars Sportsbook

Tonight marks the beginning of the Western Conference Finals, and both the Mavericks and Warriors have upset higher-seeded teams to get to this point. Star power has been a major factor for both these teams, but the last time they met in playoffs 15-years ago, that was not the case. The top-seeded Mavericks fell in six games to the ‘We Believe’ Warriors team, who won 25 fewer games than them in the regular season. However, this series is bound to be a different story, and although Golden State has home court advantage now, Dallas still went 3-1 against them this season. 

As sensational as the splash brothers are, I think the Warriors’ contention period is slowly slipping away, whereas Dallas’ is just beginning. Of course that doesn’t stop Golden State from potentially winning tonight, but statistically speaking, 75.6% of Game 1 winners go on to win the series. In my opinion, I think Luka and his Mavericks are heading to the NBA Finals, and they sure have a ton of momentum coming into tonight’s game. Dallas will need to win once on the road anyways if they have aspirations of taking the series, and tonight seems like a good opportunity to take +185 money line odds for them. 

After seeing these two teams face-to-face in a playoff matchup, I am doubtful I’ll be able to find odds this profitable again on the Mavericks. Even though Dallas will now be without a key shooter in Tim Hardaway, Golden State is also missing Gary Payton II, which is a considerable defensive blow. The Warriors’ ability to shoot the lights out has still been on full display, but something seems different about them this year…

This season, Steph Curry shot his worst 3PT percentage of his entire career, Klay Thompson took considerable time to rebound from a severe injury, and Draymond Green is starting to show signs of his athleticism declining. Inversely, we are beginning to see an MVP level player in Luka Doncic emerge on the postseason stage, Jalen Brunson is developing into a bonafide co-star, and Spencer Dinwiddie finally looks like himself again. All things considered, Game 1 should be a treat, and +185 on the Mavericks money line at the Caesars Sportsbook is simply too good of a price to ignore.

One of betstamp’s largest brand values is transparency. Whether you are looking to tail or fade my picks, or potentially just like reading the breakdowns, you can find my full documented betting record here. Best of luck with your bets today.

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