NFL FREE PICKS

At betstamp, transparency is very important to us. With each NFL free pick article on this website, the author will have a link to their betstamp profile page, so that you can see their full betting history before you decide whether or not you want to tail their plays.

NFL Preview: Best Bet to Lead the NFL in Sacks – Aug 01

By Lior Lampert

Last season, we saw Pittsburgh Steelers pass rusher T.J. Watt tie Michael Strahan’s all-time single-season sack record with 22.5. Watt is the first player to be the league’s sack leader in consecutive seasons since Philadelphia Eagles legend Reggie White, did so in 1987 and 1988. As a result, Watt is deservingly considered the favourite to lead the league in sacks for a third straight season. Although, if history is any indication, it is unlikely that Watt accomplishes this feat.

Sacks are about more than just having the ability to get to the quarterback. We must consider things such as opportunity and durability when evaluating this market. For example, playing alongside another talented pass rusher forces offensive lines to respect both players, creating one-on-one opportunities with offensive lineman. You can see it in the odds: there are multiple pass-rushing duos on the same team who are amongst the league’s favourites to earn the sack leader title, such as Joey Bosa/Khalil Mack and Chandler Jones/Maxx Crosby. Although, at the same time, these players are also hurting each other’s chances to rack up sacks because they are sharing the sack totals.

Next, strength of schedule also impacts opportunity. Having an easy schedule and being on a team that will be winning a majority of their games will most likely force opponents to have to throw more, creating more sack opportunities in the process. On the other hand, having a tough schedule or playing for a team that will lose a majority of their games puts the opponent in situations where they do not need to pass as much, which in turn will reduce the amount of sack opportunities a player gets.

All things considered, there is one name that sticks out more than the rest: Cincinnati Bengals defensive end, Trey Hendrickson. Only missing two games in the last two seasons, Hendrickson ranks third in the NFL in sacks since 2020, with a total of 27.5. Surrounded by good-not-great pass rushing counterparts on his defensive line, Hendrickson is also the unquestioned leader of this defense and the alpha presence in terms of getting to the quarterback.

Hendrickson is a high-motor player who possesses the skills and relentlessness needed to lead the league in sacks. He also plays for a team that is widely-considered to be a Super Bowl contender in what is one of the strongest and most competitive divisions in football, which should set him and the Bengals up for several close games and high-pressure situations where he will be needed to take down the quarterback. Hendrickson can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook (+1700).

One of betstamp’s largest brand values is transparency. Whether you are looking to tail or fade my picks, or potentially like reading the breakdowns, you can find my full documented betting record here. Best of luck with your plays.

To learn more about wagering on the NFL...

Tips and strategies to become a more successful NFL bettor.

The easiest way to go bust is to mismanage your bankroll. Avoid the pitfalls by learning about bankroll management strategies.

Prop bets are now one of the most common bet types amongst NFL bettors. Find out why they are so popular and how to bet them.

Have you ever wondered why lines move? It's not as simple as you would think. Knowledge of how betting markets work can help you become a more successful bettor.

It's the single easiest way to gain an edge in the NFL. Find out more about how to become price sensitive and shop for the best lines.

You've heard it before: Fade the public. The thing is... this is actually not a winning long-term strategy. Find out why.