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NFL Fantasy Preview: QB Sleepers and Busts

By Lior Lampert

In fantasy football, the quarterback position is the easiest to address when it comes to building a roster. Last year’s overall QB2 (Justin Herbert) and QB10 (Kyler Murray) were only separated by 85 fantasy points, and Murray missed three games. Speaking of Kyler Murray and what makes him such a great fantasy asset, a quarterback’s rushing ability creates unlimited upside on a weekly basis. With that being said, let’s evaluate a couple of sleepers and busts at the QB position heading into the 2022-23 season.

Based on FantasyPros rankings, Dak Prescott is listed as this year’s projected QB10. I think Prescott could be in for a bit of a rough season (from a fantasy standpoint) and it will be difficult for him to be able to live up to that draft price. After losing two key starters from last year’s offensive line, his top wide receiver (Amari Cooper) and Michael Gallup not expected to be ready for the start of the season, the Cowboys offense does not have that same firepower we’ve become accustomed to seeing. Not to mention, Prescott has little-to-no rushing upside, especially since returning from his scary ankle injury in 2020. He is an easy fade for me at his current draft price.

Another quarterback with quite a lofty draft price and little-to-no rushing upside since returning from a season-ending injury is Cincinnati Bengals QB, Joe Burrow. Although he finished as last year’s QB8, it wasn’t always pretty with Burrow. Burrow accumulated nearly 50% of his fantasy points in three games last year, while having several quiet games throughout the year. While the Bengals will be a fun team to watch in real life and should score plenty of points, Burrow is not worth being selected as a top-7 QB off the draft board. 

I have touched on the Minnesota Vikings and the impact I believe their new head coach will have on this offense in multiple articles recently, why stop now? Kevin O’Connell played a large role in Matthew Stafford finishing as the overall fantasy QB5 last season, and he steps into an offense filled with weapons. The Vikings ranked in the bottom-half of the league in pass rate last season yet Kirk Cousins still finished with over 4,000 yards and 33 touchdown passes. Cousins is as consistent of a quarterback as you can get: he has eclipsed 4,000 yards and finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in six of his last seven seasons. Being ranked as the QB15 via FantasyPros, Cousins is in store for a better fantasy season than both Prescott and Burrow.

The beauty of fantasy football is that it doesn’t always have to look good to result in fantasy points. In Week 4 of last season, Trey Lance entered the game in the second half for the San Francisco 49ers in place of an injured Jimmy Garoppolo and threw for 2 touchdown passes while adding an additional 41 rushing yards on 7 carries (he also ran for a two-point conversion). Garoppolo’s injury forced him to miss Week 5 as well, where Lance threw for less than 200 passing yards with 0 touchdowns and an interception. However, he was still able to clear the 15-point fantasy total due to his 16 rushing attempts and 89 rushing yards. Being drafted as this year’s QB12 via FantasyPros, I think Lance carries top-five upside given his rushing prowess and the presence of offensive guru Kyle Shanahan as his head coach.

One of betstamp’s largest brand values is transparency. Whether you are looking to tail or fade my picks, or potentially like reading the breakdowns, you can find my full documented betting record here. Best of luck with your plays.

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