NFL FREE PICKS

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NFL Player Props: July 13

By Eric Pauly

Last season, Cooper Kupp had one of the most prolific seasons by a wide receiver in NFL history. Kupp won the NFL’s wide receiver triple crown, he was voted the AP Offensive Player of the Year, and he finished in third place in NFL MVP voting. Cooper Kupp was targeted 191 times and he caught 145 passes for 1,947 yards. Kupp led the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. Hw also posted 13.4 yards per reception in 2021. 

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Kupps receiving yard prop is set at 1,300.5 yards for the 2022 NFL season. Kupp had 1,947 receiving yards last year, so based on the number for his receiving yards next season, oddsmakers are expecting regression in 2022. Since Kupp's numbers last season were so monstrous, oddsmakers do not believe Kupp can replicate it. However, it is still shocking that his receiving yards total is set at 600 yards under the yardage he finished with last year.

Kupp is thrown the ball in double coverage and he is capable of making plays even when the defense knows the ball is going his way. Sean McVay will not stop force-feeding Kupp, their best offensive player, targets and scheming him open. Opposing cornerbacks and safeties can try to thwart Kupp all they want, but, based on last season, it is easier said than done. Kupp caught 70 first downs last season, and this is important because the other team knew the ball was being thrown to him, yet he was still able to find space and make a play on the football.

The Rams signed Allen Robinson after a down season in Chicago to replace Robert Woods who they traded to Tennessee. While Robinson is arguably the better offensive weapon than Woods, I do not think this signing will take away an enormous amount of targets from Kupp’s 2022 outlook.

I understand regression, and I understand staying healthy and being available is difficult in the NFL, but 1,300.5 yards is simply too low. Kupp will probably not go over the 1,900-yard mark again, but 1,300.5 is too low and Kupp should certainly hit the over if he remains healthy.

PICK: Cooper Kupp OVER 1,300.5 Receiving Yards -115 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

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