NFL FREE PICKS

At betstamp, transparency is very important to us. With each NFL free pick article on this website, the author will have a link to their betstamp profile page, so that you can see their full betting history before you decide whether or not you want to tail their plays.

NFL Season Player Prop of the Day: June 23

By Lior Lampert

A lot has changed between now and Super Bowl 56, so it will be interesting to see how all the offseason turmoil factors into the new season. The Cincinnati Bengals, last year’s Super Bowl runner-up, have been aggressive this offseason in addressing their biggest need – keeping Joe Burrow upright after he was sacked 70 times last season. Are the new additions enough to give Cincy another chance at the title?

The biggest move the Bengals made was bringing in former Cowboys offensive lineman La’el Collins on a three-year deal, who only allowed two sacks all of last season. The Bengals were not done there: they went ahead and signed offensive guard Alex Cappa from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who started every game for the Bucs over the last two seasons. Then, they went ahead and addressed the center position by bringing in former New England Patriot Ted Karras, who played all over the offensive line during his time in New England. His experience and versatility are very welcoming for a team that lacked depth and experience at every position of the offensive line. 

Although, no one is talking about the impact this has on Bengals star running back, Joe Mixon. Of the 991 offensive plays run by the Bengals, 436 of them were rushing attempts, with Mixon receiving 292 of those attempts. The improved offensive line combined with the high rushing volume sets Mixon up perfectly to exceed his numbers from last year, where he finished third in rushing yards.

Not to mention, the Bengals have arguably the best receiver duo in the NFL. Which should help give Mixon more space to operate out of the backfield since defenses must respect the receivers and give them attention. Mixon will not be facing as many “stacked boxes” as the other running backs across the league, meaning he will have more favourable running lanes and matchups based on the defensive formations. Not to mention, there is very little competition for touches out of the backfield behind Mixon. So, he is one of the few running backs in today’s NFL that can expect to push for 300 rushing attempts.

Jonathon Taylor, last year’s rushing leader and the favourite to repeat the feat, has two capable running backs behind him in Nyheim Hines and Phillip Lindsay. These two will assuredly get their chances to play throughout the season. Derrick Henry, the next favourite to win the title, is coming off of a big injury in an offense that has seemingly regressed since last year. Henry himself also did not look the same in the postseason after returning from injury. 

The next two players on the list, Dalvin Cook and Nick Chubb, both have extremely talented backups behind them who could be starting running backs on other teams and will most certainly command time on the field as well. Not to mention, Dalvin Cook hasn’t played a full season in his entire NFL career, and a rushing title is tough to win if you aren’t on the field running the ball. All of this sets up perfectly for Joe Mixon to have a great shot at winning the rushing title in 2022-23, and I love the value that you get with his odds.

My Pick: Joe Mixon 2022-23 Regular Season Rushing Leader +1200 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

One of betstamp’s largest brand values is transparency. Whether you are looking to tail or fade my picks, or potentially like reading the breakdowns, you can find my full documented betting record here. Best of luck with your plays.

To learn more about wagering on the NFL...

Tips and strategies to become a more successful NFL bettor.

The easiest way to go bust is to mismanage your bankroll. Avoid the pitfalls by learning about bankroll management strategies.

Prop bets are now one of the most common bet types amongst NFL bettors. Find out why they are so popular and how to bet them.

Have you ever wondered why lines move? It's not as simple as you would think. Knowledge of how betting markets work can help you become a more successful bettor.

It's the single easiest way to gain an edge in the NFL. Find out more about how to become price sensitive and shop for the best lines.

You've heard it before: Fade the public. The thing is... this is actually not a winning long-term strategy. Find out why.