NHL FREE PICKS

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NHL Picks: May 13

By Josh Goodwin

My pick: New York Rangers @ Pittsburgh Penguins O6.0 (-120 Caesars)

Sometimes a bet can seem too good to be true, and oftentimes that ends up being the case. Yet with that being said, I am still taking the over 6.0 goals scored between the Rangers and Penguins in tonight’s intense Game 6 match-up. Currently, the best available odds for this wager are -120 at the Caesars sportsbook.

The bet does seem obvious; thus far the over has cashed in each of the previous 5 games in the series. As great as Igor Shesterkin has been all regular season, the Penguins have definitely found ways to break through, scoring 13-goals directly against him in the last 3 games. With Pittsburgh’s offensive power and playoff experience, I expect them to make it difficult once again on Shesterkin tonight as he travels into PPG Paints Arena for a pivotal matchup. Although I am yet to place any moneyline bets, I still tend to envision this series going the distance to 7-games, meaning the Rangers will need to win tonight. The last game certainly provided New York with some much-needed momentum, and Pittsburgh’s goaltending situation is not nearly as reliable as in years prior. 

A massive swing factor in Game 5 was undoubtedly Jacob Trouba’s controversial hit on Sidney Crosby, which was not penalized in any way by the officials or the NHL department of player safety. At the time of this collision, the Rangers had been trailing 2-0 and were likely booking a tee time for the next morning. However, they end up fighting back in front of their home crowd to survive with a 5-3 victory. Crosby only played a few shifts following the incident before exiting the game, and the Penguins have been reluctant to publicly label his injury as a concussion. I believe the oddsmakers have priced the betting markets for tonight’s matchup on the predication that Crosby will not be in the lineup, and this is a very possible reality for Pittsburgh. Yet given the importance of Game 6 and the fact he wasn’t immediately removed from the game, I have a hunch he could play. This certainly could be a factor that generates some positive closing line value on the over bet, which I believe has a substantial chance of cashing regardless. 

Given the clear high-scoring trend of this series, combined with the importance of a Game 6, I definitely see the 6-goal mark as very attainable. I also would not be surprised to see a push here either, but my money is still on the over. Neither team has been held to less than 2-goals in the entire series, and I expect a mutually inspired effort tonight from these two offensively capable teams. As I mentioned before, sometimes a bet can seem too good to be true, but let’s just hope this one can deliver.

One of betstamp’s largest brand values is transparency. Whether you are looking to tail or fade my picks, or potentially just like reading the breakdowns, you can find my full documented betting record here. Best of luck with your bets today.

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